Trump Economic Adviser Stephen Moore (Heritage Foundation, Wall Street Journal, and Cato Inst.) joins Dave to discuss how bad the economic fallout will be as businesses shut down due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Will banks clamp down on lending? How can we reopen the economy? What will the impact be on Election 2020? And why Donald Trump would be wise learning the lessons from Barak Obama’s American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

Plus a couple of questions from Ricochet members.

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There are 9 comments.

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  1. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron Miller Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    How strict is that “Don’t lick any doorknobs” policy? 

    Your engine metaphor is apt. Some businesses will be able to operate as before. But thousands have been destroyed or crippled. 

    Is there a good article explaining which industries are most effected by the shutdown? 

    • #1
    • March 25, 2020, at 11:11 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  2. Dave Sussman Contributor

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    How strict is that “Don’t lick any doorknobs” policy?

    Not at all. Darwin rules. ;)

    Your engine metaphor is apt. Some businesses will be able to operate as before. But thousands have been destroyed or crippled.

    Is there a good article explaining which industries are most effected by the shutdown?

    Aaron, what I am hearing from SMB’s is dire. Banks are revisiting any loans in the queue to close after they already cleared underwriting. These are loans business owners desperately need. 

    To answer your question, it appears almost every industry is impacted. After a ramp-up of fear for the past six weeks, we are only in our second week of partial lockdown. The economic impact of shutting down several industries is cancerous, metastasizing across all sectors.

    Of course, if you are big-box grocery chains, (ie) Walmart, Costco and Amazon you will do well. But most sectors are hemorrhaging capital and soon will be letting employees go. From manufacturing and factories, automotive (mfg’s, suppliers, dealers) and other big-ticket items such as real estate (commercial and residential, construction and development), boats, etc., airlines/travel & hospitality, trade, banking, most retail, restaurants, events, sports, films, and entertainment, and key commodity markets will see disruptions.

    • #2
    • March 25, 2020, at 12:39 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  3. OccupantCDN Coolidge

    I think the 4 months of unemployment insurance will be necessary. I dont think there are very many who’d take 60% of their income to sit home, when they can get an additional 40% to go back to work.

    Not all businesses will restart instantly when the quarantine is lifted. They’ll need time to order and deliver supplies. It could take weeks – even for simple businesses like restaurants to open, it could take months for more complex assembly lines to restart.

    • #3
    • March 25, 2020, at 12:44 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  4. EtCarter Listener

    Step#1. Healthy non immunocompromised people go back to work. 

    • #4
    • March 25, 2020, at 12:47 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  5. Susan Quinn Contributor

    Good discussion. I appreciated Stephen’s candor in stating how difficult it was to predict, rather than his making up something.

    • #5
    • March 25, 2020, at 1:19 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  6. OccupantCDN Coolidge

    According to “Big Short” of every 1% that unemployment goes up, 40 000 Americans die. I think its quite possible, that the economic consequences of this pandemic, will be deadlier than the disease. Unemployment went for 3% to 20% in 2 weeks, that would translate into 680 000 additional deaths.

    • #6
    • March 25, 2020, at 11:57 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  7. OccupantCDN Coolidge

    Good Talk. I kinda regret my question now.

    I should’ve asked about the proposal to have “Business Interruption Insurance” cover pandemics. Then have the fed bail out the insurance companies. This would be a quick method to distribute cash to small business – and I think could be done without congress. As financial services wouldnt they be regulated (to some degree) by the federal government?

     

     

    • #7
    • March 26, 2020, at 4:38 PM PDT
    • Like
  8. RufusRJones Member

    I can’t believe how many Republicans are ignorant of the risk of a debt deflation collapse. It is no simple thing to figure out a system of forbearance on the flow of money that services debt. Furthermore, retired people need these flows to live. 

    They are also ignorant of the human destruction from a low performing economy.

    Every single year every debt to GDP ratio gets worse. There is no slack in the system. At least this time the banks aren’t massively under capitalized.

    So many things need to be re-thought.

     

     

    • #8
    • March 29, 2020, at 3:53 AM PDT
    • 1 like